No. 16 Mississippi State @ No. 22 LSU
10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 65° · Wind 11 mph · Clear · 0–31 F
Our pick Mississippi State +15.5Did not cover by 15.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -12.5 → now -18.0 · total 56.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -17.5 | 56.5 |
| Bovada | -18.0 | 55.5 |
LSU ML · Model 89% · Book 83% · value LSU
Mississippi State off a byeMississippi State +8 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Mississippi State +15.5OC Spread LSU -14.5OC Total 57.53.1 pts vs market
Mississippi StatePower ratingsLSU
SP+LSU by 19.2
6.0
25.2
FPILSU by 16.9
7.8
24.7
Elo (pts)LSU by 16.9
0.8
17.7
CORELSU by 18.6
9.0
27.6
WEPALSU by 15.2
3.0
18.2
SRSLSU by 18.4
7.5
25.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from LSU's side
Game recap
| Metric | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.409 | 0.689 |
| Explosiveness | 0.790 | 0.850 |
| Havoc | 0.148 | 0.364 |
| PPA | -0.252 | 0.355 |
| Field position | 71.100 | 73.400 |
Passing
- Sam Leavitt · LSU31/38 · 289 yds · 2.5 aDOT
- Parker Puckett · Mississippi State16/26 · 121 yds · 6.3 aDOT