South Carolina @ No. 16 Florida
10/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM · SEC Network · 82° · Wind 4 mph · Heavy Rain · 38–19 F
Our pick South Carolina +10.5Covered by 29.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -14.5 → now -10.5 · total 59.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -10.5 | 59.5 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 | 59.5 |
Florida ML · Model 62% · Book 79% · value South Carolina
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick South Carolina +10.5OC Spread Florida -3.5OC Total 58.57.1 pts vs market
South CarolinaPower ratingsFlorida
SP+South Carolina by 0.4
11.0
10.6
FPIFlorida by 0.4
13.5
13.9
Elo (pts)South Carolina by 4.6
9.8
5.2
CORESouth Carolina by 2.1
11.4
9.3
WEPAFlorida by 0.7
7.4
8.1
SRSFlorida by 2.3
11.1
13.4
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Florida's side
Game recap
| Metric | South Carolina | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.433 | 0.438 |
| Explosiveness | 1.390 | 1 |
| Havoc | 0.188 | 0.149 |
| PPA | 0.327 | 0.038 |
| Field position | 66.300 | 73.500 |
Passing
- Lanorris Sellers · South Carolina23/35 · 279 yds · 11.5 aDOT
- Aaron Philo · Florida21/28 · 227 yds · 5.9 aDOT
- Tramell Jones Jr. · Florida6/8 · 40 yds · 2.6 aDOT