No. 8 Florida @ No. 25 Missouri
10/3/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ABC · 75° · Wind 5 mph · Clear · 17–45 F
Our pick Missouri +5.5Covered by 33.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +2.5 → now +5.5 · total 58.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 | 57.5 |
| Bovada | +5.5 | 58.0 |
Missouri ML · Model 51% · Book 35% · value Missouri
Florida travels 857 mi
Ratings matchup
Our pick Missouri +5.5OC Spread Missouri -0.5OC Total 54.05.8 pts vs market
FloridaPower ratingsMissouri
SP+Missouri by 3.6
10.6
14.2
FPIMissouri by 0.2
13.9
14.1
Elo (pts)Missouri by 6.2
5.2
11.4
COREMissouri by 10.5
9.3
19.8
WEPAMissouri by 0.7
8.1
8.7
SRSMissouri by 1.3
13.4
14.7
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Missouri's side
Game recap
| Metric | Florida | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.319 | 0.518 |
| Explosiveness | 1.560 | 1.390 |
| Havoc | 0.179 | 0.298 |
| PPA | 0.019 | 0.415 |
| Field position | 74.700 | 74.800 |
Passing
- Aaron Philo · Florida21/34 · 197 yds · 5.4 aDOT
- Austin Simmons · Missouri23/30 · 340 yds · 10.8 aDOT
- Tramell Jones Jr. · Florida5/5 · 86 yds · 11.6 aDOT