No. 7 Alabama @ No. 16 Mississippi State
10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ABC · 82° · Wind 5 mph · Cloudy · 56–23 F
Our pick Alabama -5.5Covered by 27.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +3.0 → now +5.5 · total 62.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +5.5 | 62.5 |
| Bovada | +5.5 | 61.5 |
Mississippi State ML · Model 20% · Book 34% · value Alabama
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Alabama -5.5OC Spread Mississippi State +9.5OC Total 58.54.2 pts vs market
AlabamaPower ratingsMississippi State
SP+Alabama by 14.9
20.9
6.0
FPIAlabama by 16.8
24.5
7.8
Elo (pts)Alabama by 16.7
17.6
0.8
COREAlabama by 17.5
26.5
9.0
WEPAAlabama by 13.6
16.6
3.0
SRSAlabama by 16.1
23.6
7.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 0-5 · ATS 0-0 from Mississippi State's side
- 2023 · Mississippi State 17–40unpriced
- 2022 · Mississippi State 6–30unpriced
- 2021 · Mississippi State 9–49unpriced
- 2020 · Mississippi State 0–41unpriced
- 2019 · Mississippi State 7–38unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.569 | 0.367 |
| Explosiveness | 1.340 | 1.280 |
| Havoc | 0.283 | 0.157 |
| PPA | 0.482 | -0.182 |
| Field position | 67.100 | 69.500 |
Passing
- Kamario Taylor · Mississippi State19/34 · 258 yds · 10.0 aDOT
- Keelon Russell · Alabama16/22 · 285 yds · 14.0 aDOT
- Parker Puckett · Mississippi State3/6 · 26 yds · 6.7 aDOT
- Austin Mack · Alabama2/2 · 19 yds · 8.5 aDOT