No. 4 Ole Miss @ No. 21 Florida
9/26/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ABC · 82° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 28–52 F
Our pick Florida -4.0Covered by 20.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -1.5 → now -4.0 · total 58.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -4.0 | 58.5 |
| Bovada | -4.0 | 58.5 |
Florida ML · Model 77% · Book 60% · value Florida
Ole Miss travels 532 mi
Ratings matchup
Our pick Florida -4.0OC Spread Florida -8.5OC Total 61.54.5 pts vs market
Ole MissPower ratingsFlorida
SP+Ole Miss by 4.1
14.7
10.6
FPIOle Miss by 7.6
21.5
13.9
Elo (pts)Ole Miss by 13.8
18.9
5.2
COREOle Miss by 4.5
13.8
9.3
WEPAOle Miss by 1.8
9.9
8.1
SRSOle Miss by 7.2
20.6
13.4
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Florida's side
Game recap
| Metric | Ole Miss | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.542 | 0.611 |
| Explosiveness | 0.930 | 1.050 |
| Havoc | 0.042 | 0.169 |
| PPA | 0.235 | 0.393 |
| Field position | 75.300 | 65.800 |
Passing
- Trinidad Chambliss · Ole Miss25/34 · 298 yds · 11.5 aDOT
- Aaron Philo · Florida16/23 · 196 yds · 7.9 aDOT