Mississippi State @ Minnesota
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · CBS · 73° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 38–13 F
Our pick Mississippi State +0.5Covered by 25.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -2.5 → now +0.5 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 | 53.5 |
| Bovada | -1.0 | 53.5 |
Minnesota ML · Model 25% · Book 51% · value Mississippi State
Mississippi State travels 830 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Mississippi State +0.5OC Spread Minnesota +7.5OC Total 52.08.0 pts vs market
Mississippi StatePower ratingsMinnesota
SP+Mississippi State by 2.1
6.0
3.9
FPIMississippi State by 5.0
7.8
2.7
Elo (pts)Mississippi State by 2.6
0.8
-1.8
COREMississippi State by 12.3
9.0
-3.3
WEPAMississippi State by 5.7
3.0
-2.7
SRSMississippi State by 4.1
7.5
3.4
Game recap
| Metric | Mississippi State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.630 | 0.400 |
| Explosiveness | 1.110 | 1.070 |
| Havoc | 0.133 | 0.148 |
| PPA | 0.530 | -0.109 |
| Field position | 82 | 74.300 |
Passing
- Drake Lindsey · Minnesota31/48 · 279 yds · 7.6 aDOT
- Kamario Taylor · Mississippi State16/22 · 227 yds · 9.2 aDOT