No. 12 Alabama @ Kentucky
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ABC · 80° · Wind 5 mph · Rain · 45–17 F
Our pick Alabama -8.5Covered by 19.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +10.5 → now +9.0 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +8.0 | 47.0 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 | 47.5 |
Kentucky ML · Model 11% · Book 24% · value Alabama
Ratings matchup
Our pick Alabama -8.5OC Spread Kentucky +15.0OC Total 47.06.2 pts vs market
AlabamaPower ratingsKentucky
SP+Alabama by 10.3
20.9
10.6
FPIAlabama by 11.5
24.5
13.0
Elo (pts)Alabama by 12.2
17.6
5.4
COREAlabama by 13.4
26.5
13.1
WEPAAlabama by 7.5
16.6
9.1
SRSAlabama by 8.6
23.6
15.0
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 0-5 · ATS 0-0 from Kentucky's side
Game recap
| Metric | Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.475 | 0.313 |
| Explosiveness | 1.150 | 1 |
| Havoc | 0.219 | 0.271 |
| PPA | 0.184 | -0.176 |
| Field position | 58.300 | 75.500 |
Passing
- Kenny Minchey · Kentucky18/32 · 146 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Keelon Russell · Alabama16/23 · 188 yds · 8.5 aDOT