No. 12 Alabama @ Kentucky
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ABC · 80° · Wind 5 mph · Rain · 45–17 F
Our pick Alabama -8.5Covered by 19.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +10.5 → now +8.5 · total 47.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +8.5 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | +8.0 | 47.0 |
| Draft Kings | +9.5 | 47.5 |
Kentucky ML · Model 11% · Book 24% · value Alabama
Ratings matchup
Our pick Alabama -8.5OC Spread Kentucky +15.0OC Total 47.06.2 pts vs market
AlabamaPower ratingsKentucky
SP+Alabama by 15.0
21.2
6.2
FPIAlabama by 19.0
23.2
4.2
Elo (pts)Alabama by 16.8
14.4
-2.4
COREAlabama by 18.4
15.7
-2.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 0-5 · ATS 0-0 from Kentucky's side
Game recap
| Metric | Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.475 | 0.313 |
| Explosiveness | 1.150 | 1 |
| Havoc | 0.219 | 0.271 |
| PPA | 0.184 | -0.176 |
| Field position | 58.300 | 75.500 |
Passing
- Kenny Minchey · Kentucky18/32 · 146 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Keelon Russell · Alabama16/23 · 188 yds · 8.5 aDOT