Texas State @ No. 5 Texas
9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN · 98° · Wind 0 mph · Fair · 7–59 F
Our pick Texas -29.5Covered by 22.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -30.5 → now -29.5 · total 60.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -29.5 | 60.5 |
| Draft Kings | -29.5 | 61.5 |
| Bovada | -29.5 | 60.0 |
Texas ML · Model 98% · Book 96%
Texas State off a byeTexas off a bye
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Texas
50
Our pick Texas -29.5OC Spread Texas -39.0OC Total 61.09.5 pts vs market
Win probability
Texas State 2%Texas 98%
Texas StatePower ratingsTexas
SP+Texas by 31.5
-6.5
25.0
FPITexas by 38.4
-8.2
30.1
Elo (pts)Texas by 19.1
-2.5
16.6
CORETexas by 9.4
-0.3
9.1
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Texas's side
- 1930 · Texas 36–0unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Texas State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.429 | 0.500 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 1.630 |
| Havoc | 0.231 | 0.357 |
| PPA | 0.142 | 0.451 |
| Field position | 77.600 | 60.200 |
Passing
- Arch Manning · Texas20/27 · 305 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Brad Jackson · Texas State15/23 · 150 yds · 6.2 aDOT
- Karle Lacey Jr. · Texas6/7 · 55 yds · 5.7 aDOT
- Gavin Parkhurst · Texas State5/6 · 38 yds · 4.5 aDOT