Texas State @ No. 5 Texas
9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN · 98° · Wind 0 mph · Fair · 7–59 F
Our pick Texas -29.5Covered by 22.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -30.5 → now -29.5 · total 61.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -29.5 | 61.5 |
| Bovada | -29.5 | 60.0 |
Texas ML · Model 98% · Book 96%
Texas State off a byeTexas off a bye
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Texas
41
Our pick Texas -29.5OC Spread Texas -25.0OC Total 57.04.7 pts vs market
Win probability
Texas State 2%Texas 98%
Texas StatePower ratingsTexas
SP+Texas by 18.9
1.5
20.4
FPITexas by 23.2
0.8
24.0
Elo (pts)Texas by 14.7
2.8
17.4
CORETexas by 5.4
3.6
9.0
WEPATexas by 6.5
2.0
8.5
SRSTexas by 14.1
6.8
20.9
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Texas's side
- 1930 · Texas 36–0unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Texas State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.429 | 0.500 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 1.630 |
| Havoc | 0.231 | 0.357 |
| PPA | 0.142 | 0.451 |
| Field position | 77.600 | 60.200 |
Passing
- Arch Manning · Texas20/27 · 305 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Brad Jackson · Texas State15/23 · 150 yds · 6.2 aDOT
- Karle Lacey Jr. · Texas6/7 · 55 yds · 5.7 aDOT
- Gavin Parkhurst · Texas State5/6 · 38 yds · 4.5 aDOT