UL Monroe @ Mississippi State
9/5/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPNU · 91° · Wind 3 mph · Rain Shower · 13–62 F
Our pick Mississippi State -28.5Covered by 20.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -28.5 → now -28.5 · total 55.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -28.5 | 55.0 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 | 54.5 |
Mississippi State ML · Model 98% · Book 96%
UL Monroe off a byeMississippi State off a byeUL Monroe +35 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Mississippi State -28.5OC Spread Mississippi State -35.0OC Total 55.56.5 pts vs market
Win probability
UL Monroe 3%Mississippi State 98%
UL MonroePower ratingsMississippi State
SP+Mississippi State by 30.2
-24.2
6.0
FPIMississippi State by 33.4
-25.6
7.8
Elo (pts)Mississippi State by 20.1
-19.2
0.8
COREMississippi State by 29.8
-20.8
9.0
WEPAMississippi State by 17.3
-14.3
3.0
SRSMississippi State by 30.7
-23.2
7.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-1 · ATS 0-0 from Mississippi State's side
- 1997 · Mississippi State 24–10unpriced
- 1996 · Mississippi State 59–0unpriced
- 1995 · Mississippi State 32–34unpriced
- 1989 · Mississippi State 28–14unpriced
- 1973 · Mississippi State 21–21unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | UL Monroe | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.242 | 0.600 |
| Explosiveness | 0.750 | 1.390 |
| Havoc | 0.160 | 0.333 |
| PPA | -0.154 | 0.646 |
| Field position | 76.800 | 70.200 |
Passing
- Kamario Taylor · Mississippi State22/34 · 354 yds · 8.5 aDOT
- Aidan Armenta · UL Monroe10/16 · 67 yds · 3.5 aDOT
- Austin Carlisle · UL Monroe6/10 · 73 yds · 3.4 aDOT
- Parker Puckett · Mississippi State5/8 · 63 yds · 15.6 aDOT