No. 24 Louisville vs No. 9 Ole Miss
9/6/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ABC · 88° · Wind 9 mph · Clear · 38–41 F
Our pick Louisville +6.5Covered by 3.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -6.5 · total 55.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -6.5 | 55.0 |
| Draft Kings | -6.5 | 54.5 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 | 55.5 |
Ole Miss ML · Model 67% · Book 70%
Louisville off a byeOle Miss off a byeLouisville +17 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Louisville +6.5OC Spread Ole Miss -3.5OC Total 55.53.1 pts vs market
Win probability
Louisville 33%Ole Miss 67%
LouisvillePower ratingsOle Miss
SP+Ole Miss by 1.1
14.1
15.2
FPIOle Miss by 3.5
11.9
15.5
Elo (pts)Ole Miss by 7.3
6.7
14.0
COREOle Miss by 1.5
4.5
6.0
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Ole Miss's side
- 2021 · Ole Miss 43–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Louisville | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.456 | 0.463 |
| Explosiveness | 1.510 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.162 |
| PPA | 0.389 | 0.298 |
| Field position | 69 | 67.800 |
Passing
- Trinidad Chambliss · Ole Miss21/37 · 336 yds · 6.1 aDOT
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville18/29 · 307 yds · 9.0 aDOT