No. 24 Louisville vs No. 9 Ole Miss
9/6/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ABC · 88° · Wind 9 mph · Clear · 38–41 F
Our pick Louisville +6.5Covered by 3.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.5 → now -6.5 · total 55.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -6.5 | 55.0 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 | 54.5 |
Ole Miss ML · Model 67% · Book 70%
Louisville off a byeOle Miss off a byeLouisville +17 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Louisville +6.5OC Spread Ole Miss -4.0OC Total 62.02.3 pts vs market
Win probability
Louisville 33%Ole Miss 67%
LouisvillePower ratingsOle Miss
SP+Ole Miss by 2.5
12.2
14.7
FPIOle Miss by 7.3
14.2
21.5
Elo (pts)Ole Miss by 9.9
9.0
18.9
CORELouisville by 0.2
13.9
13.8
WEPALouisville by 0.1
10.0
9.9
SRSOle Miss by 8.0
12.6
20.6
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Ole Miss's side
- 2021 · Ole Miss 43–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Louisville | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.456 | 0.463 |
| Explosiveness | 1.510 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.162 |
| PPA | 0.389 | 0.298 |
| Field position | 69 | 67.800 |
Passing
- Trinidad Chambliss · Ole Miss21/37 · 336 yds · 6.1 aDOT
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville18/29 · 307 yds · 9.0 aDOT